Threshold of Apparent Agency Parliamentary Fragmentation, Erosion of Governance, and Escalation Risk in Poland Before the 2027 Parliamentary Election

This volume of Report K* presents a systemic analysis of the Polish political system before the
2027 parliamentary election. It does not function as a conventional electoral forecast and does
not aim to predict which party will win the election. Its central question is whether Poland
is approaching a threshold at which formal continuity of power may no longer translate into
effective governance.
The volume introduces the category of apparent agency: a state in which government institutions
continue to operate formally, public communication remains active, ministers perform their
1
functions, projects and announcements are produced, yet the state increasingly fails to carry
decisions through resistance, produce real effects, and maintain the consequences of action.
Using the K⋆ model, the analysis examines systemic tension, stabilising potential, parliamentary
fragmentation, erosion of the political centre, the growth of the post-PiS right, Confederation
as a possible generational attractor, informational entropy, the deficit of permitted
corrective agency, and the risk of drawing the state into an escalatory logic under security
pressure.
The core conclusion of the volume is that the 2027 parliamentary election may not simply
create a crisis of governance, but may reveal and formalise a process already developing earlier:
the divergence between formal government and effective state agency. The publication is
intended as a diagnostic and strategic tool for public administration, analysts, policy experts,
journalists, think tanks, and institutions interested in systemic risk, state resilience, and regime
transitions of political stability.