Analytical Model of a Scenario of Latent Technological Penetration: Assessment of Long-Term Existential Risk Under Conditions of Limited External Contact

This paper presents a strictly analytical and hypothetical model for evaluating long-term existential risks associated with a scenario of latent technological penetration. The model explicitly does not assert the existence of non-human intelligence or claim evidential validity. It explores a non-anthropocentric framework in which external influence operates through the internal structural properties of human civilization — intra-species competition, technological asymmetry, informational fragmentation, and the absence of global coordination. Central to the analysis is the “Troy mechanism,” whereby ambiguous stimuli are internalized by civilizational institutions, leading to gradual increases in observability, predictability, and computational tractability without overt intervention. The work examines self-reinforcing dynamics of transparency driven by geopolitical and technological competition.