Effects of Water Stress linked to Climate Change in Ecuador: Energy Security, Losses, Damages and Adaptation Costs

This CLEW analysis for Ecuador 2020–2055 examines three trajectories: Baseline, Water Stress Scenario (15% reduction in precipitation by 2050, consistent with IPCC AR6 SSP2-4.5), and Optimized Solar Cost Scenario (reduction in solar cost from $1,524.53/kW to $240/kW by 2055).

Four findings: (i) Water Stress reduces hydroelectric generation by −32 PJ/year by 2050, offset by fuel oil, natural gas, and biomass; (ii) adaptation costs amount to +$3,253 million USD cumulatively (+2.24%), with an annual penalty of $367 million USD in 2050; (iii) solar generation does not exceed 13.57 PJ/year due to operational, not economic, constraints; (iv) The loss of 1.31 million hectares of arable land by 2050 is quantified, with an economic loss of $1.482 billion USD per year.

Four recommendations: incorporate the cost of energy adaptation into the analysis of loss and damage; complement solar policies with priority storage and dispatch; review the biofuels mandate; and use CLEW quantification as a methodological basis for interacting with the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund.