Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador

Ecuador’s transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions
within the national energy sector, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a relevant
mitigation priority for the country’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
for 2026–2035. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways using
OSeMOSYS through MUIO, focusing on the role of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and
hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in reducing fossil fuel consumption, transport emissions,
energy demand, and fuel import dependence between 2022 and 2050. 
Three scenarios are analyzed. The BAU scenario represents the baseline pathway
under current trends, without additional electrification targets. The ENEM scenario
follows Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy, assuming stronger BEV
deployment in line with national electromobility targets, while also considering HEVs as
a complementary technology. The HEV scenario explores a slower BEV deployment
pathway, where hybrid vehicles play a stronger transition role in reducing gasoline
consumption and direct CO₂ emissions under possible infrastructure, market, or
electricity supply constraints. 
The results show that both ENEM and HEV will reduce emissions compared with BAU
by 2035. BAU reaches 28.08 MtCO₂e, while ENEM reaches 26.48 MtCO₂e, equivalent
to a reduction of 1.60 MtCO₂e and a 15% contribution to the NDC conditional target.
HEV also remains below BAU, reaching 27.41 MtCO₂e, with a reduction of 0.67 MtCO₂e
and a 6% contribution to the NDC conditional target. Over the 2022–2050 period, ENEM
reduces cumulative energy demand by 759.34 PJ, or 12.14%, while HEV reduces it by
383.97 PJ, or 6.14%, compared with BAU. The electricity supply results show that
hydropower remains the backbone of clean generation, increasing from 88.7 PJ in 2022
to 123.9 PJ in 2050, while solar energy shows the strongest growth, reaching 78.9 PJ
in ENEM, 72.5 PJ in HEV, and 70.6 PJ in BAU by 2050. Fuel import results indicate that
fossil fuel dependence remains relevant, although transition scenarios reduce gasoline
imports: by 2050, gasoline imports reach 327.8 PJ in BAU, compared with 260.9 PJ in
ENEM and 299.9 PJ in HEV. Overall, ENEM provides the strongest long-term
decarbonization pathway, while HEVs can serve as a complementary transition
technology as Ecuador expands charging infrastructure, strengthens power system
readiness, and advances toward sustainable mobility.