量子未来折现:经典贴现因子模型的量子重构与一般化拓展(Quantum Future Discount: Quantum Reconstruction and Generalized Expansion of the Classical Discount Factor Model)

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Abstract

Abstract: The discount factor is the core cornerstone of intertemporal selection, consumer savings theory, asset pricing, investment decision-making, and macro dynamic general equilibrium models. The classical discount model is based on the classic worldview of a unique future path, deterministic preferences, exponential discounting, rational expectations, and observational neutrality, which exponentially discounts future utility based on fixed time preferences. However, in reality, intertemporal decision-making is generally characterized by multiple uncertainties in the future, overlapping expectations, conflicting beliefs, endogenous time preferences, policy announcement effects, and self actualization expectations, which leads to systematic biases in the classical discount model when explaining savings behavior, asset premiums, decision delays, and policy effects. This article strictly focuses on the intertemporal decision-making ontology structure of economic entities, avoids physical metaphorical analogies, introduces quantum superposition, quantum coherence, observation collapse, and quantum information entropy to construct an axiomatic system, upgrades the paradigm of the classical discount factor model, and constructs a general quantum future discounting theory (QFD). This article rigorously proves that classical exponential discounting is a degenerate special case of quantum future discounting under the conditions of no superposition, no coherence, unique future, and observational neutrality; By deriving the mathematical structure and dynamic evolution laws of quantum future discounting, this paper systematically explains the four micro mechanisms of future superposition, intertemporal coherence, observation collapse, and entropy evolution. By combining typical economic scenarios such as consumer savings, asset pricing, policy expectations, and decision-making behavior, numerical simulation analysis was conducted. The results showed that quantum future discounting can uniformly characterize intertemporal mechanisms that classical theories cannot systematically accommodate, such as multiple future coexistence, endogenous changes in beliefs, expectation resonance, announcement effects, and time preference fluctuations. This study improves the axiom system of intertemporal choice under uncertain conditions, providing a new fundamental analytical paradigm for consumption theory, asset pricing, fiscal and monetary policy evaluation, and behavioral macroeconomics.

Keywords: Quantum Future Discount; Discount factor; Intertemporal selection; Time preference; Future superposition; Observation of Collapse