Published May 20, 2026
| Version v1
Working paper
Open
Long Peace
Description
ie Long-Peace-Debatte 2016–2023 / The Long-Peace Debate 2016–2023
**Eine methodologische Analyse / A methodological analysis**
[DE] Working Paper zur Long-Peace-Debatte: Wie statistische Methodenwahl zwischen Pinker, Cirillo/Taleb, Clauset und der Change-Point-Forschung (Cunen et al., Fagan et al., Spagat & van Weezel) sowie der Inter-Conflict-Intervall-Analyse (Okamoto et al.) das empirische Ergebnis determiniert.
[EN] Working paper on the Long-Peace debate: how statistical method choice between Pinker, Cirillo/Taleb, Clauset, the change-point literature (Cunen et al., Fagan et al., Spagat & van Weezel), and the inter-conflict-interval analysis (Okamoto et al.) determines the empirical outcome.
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## Autor / Author
**Thomas Schüller** — Syntagma Forschung, Wien / Vienna
ORCID: [0009-0003-9799-6747](https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9799-6747)
Kontakt / Contact: forschung@tschueller.com
Privat finanzierte, institutionsunabhängige Forschung.
Privately funded, institution-independent research.
## Lizenz / License
**CC BY 4.0** — Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Siehe `LICENSE` für Volltext / see `LICENSE` for full text.
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