Initial release

Replication of the hours-of-restriction (h_r) extinction mechanism from Sinervo et al. 2010 (Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches, 10.1126/science.1184695) applied to 47 Iberian Lacertidae species at HEALPix nside=128 over the Iberian Peninsula (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Gibraltar), forced by Destination Earth Climate Digital Twin SSP3-7.0 for the 2020-2029 and 2030-2039 decades. End-to-end FAIR-by-design pipeline (deterministic h_r per HEALPix cell × per day; six-config sensitivity matrix over T_b prior and reproductive-window choice; cross-substrate diagnostic at nside=128 vs nside=64) culminating in a six-step FORRT nanopublication chain on platform.sciencelive4all.org.

Mechanism

The deterministic hours of restriction (h_r) model from Sinervo's SOM Equation S2: h_r = (0.74 × (T_max − T_b) + 6.1) for days when T_max > T_b (zero otherwise). A cell is flagged as locally extinct when the typical daily h_r during the critical reproductive period exceeds the family-calibrated threshold (Lacertidae = 3.1 h per Sinervo Table 1).

Headline result — sensitivity matrix

Across 47 Lacertidae species and 264 presence cells in the Iberian Peninsula (GBIF download DOI 10.15468/dl.rh4rfn, 136,210 records), the mechanism's behaviour is prior-conditional:

| Reproductive window → | Apr-May | May-Jun | Apr-Jun | |---|---:|---:|---:| | family T_b = 35.4 °C | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | | Iberolacerta T_b = 31 °C | 0.00 % | 3.56 % (2020s) / 2.88 % (2030s) | 0.30 % / 0.08 % |

Single-axis perturbations (T_b only, or window only) keep the rate at 0 %. Only the compound worst-plausible prior (cool-adapted Iberolacerta-style T_b + actual Iberian Podarcis / Iberolacerta May-June breeding chronology) flags ~3 % of cell-years — tail-dominated by single-year extremes, not monotonic decadal warming. The DestinE-reachable horizon does not extend to Sinervo's 2050 / 2080 projection years (Sinervo Table 1 Lacertidae: 24.1 % local extinction by 2050, 46.0 % by 2080); this Outcome therefore extends the mechanism's applicability map rather than confirming or disputing the source paper's headline figures.

Top-five well-sampled species under the S3a worst-plausible config (n_cells ≥ 10): Podarcis virescens (n=63, ~5 %), Psammodromus occidentalis (n=49), Podarcis vaucheri (n=41), Acanthodactylus erythrurus (n=145), Podarcis carbonelli (n=10).

Substrate-sensitivity diagnostic

Per-species 2020s rates at HEALPix nside=128 vs nside=64 (NESTED bit-shift downsample): Spearman ρ = 0.951 for well-sampled species (n_cells ≥ 10), confirming substrate-robust rankings. The low-N subset (n_cells < 10) is degenerate (zero variance — all 22 species collapse to 0 % at both substrates), an operational manifestation of the rare-species ranking caveat documented in Lobo et al. 2007 and Hurlbert & Jetz 2007.

What's in this release

• Four-notebook Snakemake pipeline (01_data_download → 02_data_clean → 03_analysis → 04_figures), HEALPix-NESTED throughout.
• Six figures: sensitivity-matrix headline heatmap, S3a per-species lollipop, substrate-sensitivity scatter, two Iberia maps of decadal daily-mean h_r rendered via healpix-plot (EOPF-DGGS canonical HEALPix → cartopy tiling).
• Six core FORRT chain drafts (Quote, AIDA, Claim, Replication Study, Replication Outcome, CiTO Citation) plus two optional-layer drafts (Research Software, cross-taxon constellation Synthesis). Published progressively on platform.sciencelive4all.org.
• Dockerfile + CI workflows (env reproducibility verified cross-platform on osx-arm64 + linux-amd64; CI workflow fires on first push).

Reproducibility

git clone https://github.com/annefou/weatherxbiodiversity-lizards.git
cd weatherxbiodiversity-lizards
mamba env create -f environment.yml
mamba activate weatherxbiodiversity-lizards
snakemake --cores 1

Or with Docker:

docker run --rm ghcr.io/annefou/weatherxbiodiversity-lizards:latest

First-run fresh-fetch needs Polytope credentials for the DestinE archive (~25 GB total — dominates first-run wall time) and a public-URL fetch for the GBIF download zip (pre-minted; ~13 MB). Subsequent runs operate on cached data in ~16 seconds end-to-end.

Data sources

• Climate (h_r computation): DestinE Climate DT SSP3-7.0 IFS-NEMO, daily-aggregated 2 m temperature at HEALPix nside=128 NESTED, 2020-2039 archive, accessed via Polytope.
• Climate (diurnal baseline): CRU TS 3.24.01 from Soroye 2020 Figshare deposit (10.6084/m9.figshare.9956471).
• Occurrences: GBIF Lacertidae × Iberia download (10.15468/dl.rh4rfn), 136,210 records, CC-BY-NC-4.0.

Related work

This Lacertidae replication is the second taxon in an Iberian thermal-niche-exceedance constellation. The first taxon is Bombus: see weatherxbiodiversity-projection (10.5281/zenodo.20113777) and its two methodological siblings (nside=128 substrate extension, cross-substrate diagnostic). A cross-taxon Research Synthesis nanopub aggregates the four chains.

The Jupyter Book is at https://annefou.github.io/weatherxbiodiversity-lizards/. Citation: see CITATION.cff.