From Appetite to Aggregate Demand: The Macroeconomic Consequences of GLP-1 Diffusion

Replication Package — "From Appetite to Aggregate Demand: The Macroeconomic Consequences of GLP-1 Diffusion"

This repository contains all data, calibration parameters, and Python code needed to fully replicate the results in Restrepo Morales et al. (2026), submitted to Food Policy.

The paper develops a three-equation structural model of GLP-1 receptor agonist diffusion and its macroeconomic consequences for the United States and Latin America: (1) a Bass diffusion process calibrated to Gallup/Circana household adoption benchmarks; (2) a category-level demand destruction function adjusted for first-year treatment abandonment; and (3) a Leontief input-output multiplier framework linking food expenditure losses to sectoral GDP impacts.

Key projections: 35% of US households will include at least one GLP-1 user by 2030, implying annual food demand destruction of approximately $58 billion and GDP losses near $90 billion through supply-chain linkages. The model also identifies a pharmacological stratification externality: income-gated access concentrates the preference reset among high-income households, widening dietary inequality.

Contents: raw macroeconomic data (FRED, BLS, CDC, USDA, Our World in Data), calibration inputs (Gallup/Circana, Kantar, Cornell, KPMG), Python scripts (model.py, analisis_glp1_economia.py), and the main 4-panel figure.

License: Authors' code and calibration files are released under CC BY 4.0. Public data sources retain their original open licenses.