Beyond Grid Parity: A Framework for Value-Optimized Solar Investment in Decarbonized Energy Systems

Abstract :

The global transition toward decarbonized energy systems has positioned solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as a critical component of sustainable electricity supply. This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework for the ex-ante evaluation of solar energy investments by critically assessing three dominant economic modeling paradigms: least-cost generation expansion models, integrated energy system models, and macroeconomic assessment tools. Empirical analysis demonstrates a 99.0% reduction in global solar PV module prices between 1982 and 2023, signifying a decisive transition from subsidy-dependent deployment to market-driven competitiveness. Nevertheless, persistent barriers—notably financial constraints (85% relative importance), technical limitations (75%), and regulatory uncertainties (70%)—continue to impede optimal solar integration.

We propose a novel decision-analytical framework that integrates technical performance metrics with dynamic economic indicators, addressing gaps in conventional evaluation methodologies. Findings indicate that while solar energy exhibits compelling economic potential—with levelized costs as low as USD 20–50/MWh in high-insolation regions—its successful integration requires modeling approaches that reconcile theoretical rigor with real-world policy and market complexities. Global solar investment reached USD 220 billion in 2023, a 175% increase since 2010, with China representing 55% of total deployment. This research provides actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and system planners navigating the evolving renewable energy landscape.