World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem

The Sleeping Beauty problem is usually framed as a conflict between two intuitions:

• repeated awakenings appear to favor Tails (the “Thirder” position),

• while the original coin toss still seems physically fair.

This manuscript explores whether these two effects are actually the same thing.

The central idea is that repeated observer instances may change:

• observer-frequency,

• self-locating uncertainty,

• and betting exposure,

without necessarily redistributing the underlying probability mass of the generating world itself.

In this framework, observer multiplicity is treated as a subdivision of existing measure rather than the creation of new probability mass.

The manuscript develops this distinction through:

• measure conservation across observer states,

• repeated-trial analysis,

• betting asymmetries,

• and comparisons with Halfer/Thirder positions, SSA/SIA, and centered-world reasoning.

This is intended as an independent conceptual contribution to discussions surrounding anthropic probability and self-locating belief.