Published May 8, 2026 | Version v1.1.2
Software Open

Oracle3: Autonomous Prediction Market Trading Agent

Authors/Creators

  • 1. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Description

Open-source Python framework that operationalizes a Wang Transform pricing engine — calibrated by hierarchical maximum-likelihood estimation on 291,309 resolved binary contracts — and drives automated trading across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Solana DFlow. Includes eight constraint-based arbitrage strategies, model Greeks, Kelly-sized execution, dual-layer risk management, and on-chain audit trails via Jito bundles and the Solana Memo program.

Files

YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-v1.1.2.zip

Files (1.4 MB)

Name Size Download all
md5:8d1ce115ac1846da3298b97f21a4730e
1.4 MB Preview Download

Additional details

Related works

Is derived from
Software: https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/prediction-market-pricing (URL)
Is supplement to
Software: https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3 (URL)
Working paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6468338 (URL)

Software

Repository URL
https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3

References

  • Yang, Y. (2026). Pricing Prediction Markets: Risk Premiums, Incomplete Markets, and a Decomposition Framework. Working Paper, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6468338
  • Wang, S. S. (2000). A Class of Distortion Operators for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 67(1), 15-36.
  • Thaler, R. H. and Ziemba, W. T. (1988). Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(2), 161-174.
  • Snowberg, E. and Wolfers, J. (2010). Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias. Journal of Political Economy, 118(4), 723-746.