Macroeconomic Drivers of House Price Cycles in the EU: Are House Price Cycles Synchronized Across Member States

This paper looks at what drives house price cycles across EU countries between 2005 and 2024, and how synchronized those cycles are. The results show that the dynamics of the house price is highly persistent. GDP growth has a clear positive effect, while higher unemployment and interest rates push prices down. Migration flows, however, are not statistically significant at the EU aggregate level. Property taxation shows a positive coefficient, which probably reflects structural and institutional differences rather than a direct dampening effect on prices. Dynamic analysis suggests that macroeconomic shocks have persistent and economically meaningful impacts on house price growth. In general, common macroeconomic drivers and structural heterogeneity coexist - something that matters for the stability of the housing market and sustainable development.