Bilateral Relationship Risk Under Geopolitical Uncertainty: A Stage-Based Model and Checklist for Trade Decision Support

Trade can look stable right up to the moment it is not. Conventional trade analysis explains patterns of exchange well, but it is less able to show when an efficient-looking trade relationship is becoming fragile under geopolitical pressure. This paper addresses that problem by shifting the focus from why states trade to how trade decisions should be evaluated when stability, shock, and uncertainty coexist. It develops a stage-based model and checklist for trade decision support built around bilateral relationship risk. The model rests on three interrelated pillars: treating the bilateral relationship as the core unit of analysis across historical, present, and forward-looking stages; analyzing the interaction between economic–operational and political–institutional dimensions; and applying a flexible qualitative logic for assessing resilience and fragility through exposure and adjustability. At the center of the framework is the Stage-Based Bilateral Relationship Checklist, which turns the model into an operational tool for reassessing trade relationships, identifying concentrated vulnerabilities, and supporting diversification, value-chain reconfiguration, and adaptive responses to geopolitical shifts. The framework is illustrated through three high-risk trade cases.