DPAH Markovian Matrix: Dew-Point Anchor Hypothesis – Stochastic Modeling of Tropospheric Attractors (Runs 301–311)

The Dew-Point Anchor Hypothesis (DPAH) proposes that the troposphere is primarily regulated by the dew-point lifting condensation level (LCL) and associated latent-heat processes rather than by top-down radiative forcing alone. This deposit documents the iterative development of a Markovian state-space model (~29,160 states: surface pressure × temperature × dew point × environmental lapse rate). The framework employs a clean physics kernel (moist-adiabatic ascent to the LCL followed by hydrostatic plus dry-adiabatic descent) to compute stationary distributions for tropical ascent (ITCZ-like) and subtropical descent regimes.

Results demonstrate a robust warm-moist attractor in the ascent regime (mean ~294.8 K, with a clear peak near 300 K). Systematic sensitivity tests to ocean-surface evaporation suppression (simulating the effects of surface films, contaminants, or other factors that alter evaporative flux) produce measurable, physically consistent shifts in the location and strength of the attractor. These experiments illustrate a central methodological advantage of the DPAH approach: complex surface processes are not collapsed into opaque “average” parameterisations. Instead, they are allowed to act through the observable dew-point boundary condition, which then organises the tropospheric column via mass-motion and water-cycle physics.

Full Python scripts (Runs 307–311), reports, and plots are included. This work provides a physics-driven stochastic testbed for examining how surface energy-budget variations and the water cycle jointly regulate tropospheric structure.