Agriculture Governance in the Philippines: An IBSF–PRGEM Diagnostic with Econometric Modeling and Senate-Derived Institutional Analysis

This study presents a multi-layered analysis of agriculture governance in the Philippines, focusing on the persistent issue of high rice prices despite increased importation and policy interventions. Using the MCA–IFS (Modular Cognitive–Analytical Integrative Framework System), the research integrates ethical governance evaluation through IBSF (Integrated Biblical–Strategic Framework) and operational assessment via PRGEM (Policy Review & Governance Evaluation Model) with rigorous econometric modeling.

Drawing from Senate hearings, the study identifies structural governance failures, including organized smuggling networks, weakened institutional control (particularly within the National Food Authority), supply chain dominance by intermediaries, and systemic enforcement gaps. These qualitative findings are quantitatively tested using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Local Projection (LP) models to assess the dynamic effects of import and governance shocks on rice prices.

Empirical results show that:

• Import shocks produce short-term and diminishing price reductions
• Governance improvements yield stronger, cumulative, and long-term stabilization effects
• Variance decomposition reveals governance factors account for 50–60% of price variability in the long run

The integrated IBSF–PRGEM score of 54/100 classifies the Philippine agriculture system as fragile and structurally vulnerable, with critical weaknesses in anti-corruption, transparency, and enforcement.

The study concludes that food insecurity in the Philippines is fundamentally a governance failure rather than a supply constraint, and that sustainable price stabilization requires structural reforms in institutional integrity, supply chain regulation, and accountability systems.