Published April 15, 2026 | Version v0.2
Dataset Restricted

ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 IAM quantification: Harmonized and Infilled Emissions and Climate Outcomes for Marker Scenarios

Authors/Creators

  • 1. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 2. ROR icon Imperial College London
  • 3. ROR icon Climate Resource (Australia)
  • 4. ROR icon Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 5. ROR icon University of Potsdam
  • 6. Kyoto Univresity
  • 7. ROR icon Ritsumeikan University
  • 8. ROR icon Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • 9. ROR icon Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • 10. Utrecht University
  • 11. ROR icon Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 12. ROR icon University of Maryland, College Park
  • 13. ROR icon Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • 14. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
  • 15. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
  • 16. ROR icon CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
  • 17. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: Laxenburg, Vienna, AT
  • 18. ROR icon Beihang University
  • 19. ROR icon National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • 20. ROR icon Technische Universität Berlin
  • 21. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 22. NTNU
  • 23. Royal Institute of Technology
  • 24. ROR icon Mendel University in Brno
  • 25. ROR icon Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute
  • 26. TU Wien
  • 27. Zhejiang University
  • 28. ROR icon Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
  • 29. ROR icon University of Zielona Góra
  • 30. ROR icon Vienna University of Economics and Business
  • 31. PBL Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 32. Cenergia (COPPE/UFRJ)
  • 33. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Editora UFRJ
  • 34. ROR icon Khalifa University of Science and Technology
  • 35. Center for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)
  • 36. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park
  • 37. ROR icon Joint Global Change Research Institute
  • 38. ROR icon Basque Centre for Climate Change
  • 39. ROR icon University of Maryland Global Campus
  • 40. ROR icon Peking University
  • 41. ROR icon Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
  • 42. ROR icon Politecnico di Milano
  • 43. ROR icon Kyoto University
  • 44. Hokkaido University
  • 45. ROR icon Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
  • 46. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
  • 47. ROR icon Instituto Dom Luiz
  • 48. Humboldt University
  • 49. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V.
  • 50. ROR icon University of Stuttgart

Description

This is a pre-release of the harmonized ScenarioMIP emissions data. Please refer to the Rules for data use and data sharing of the IAM ScenarioMIP Data at https://scenariomip.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at.

 

Harmonized Emissions of the IAM ScenarioMIP projections for CMIP7

ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 consists of alternative plausible futures including quantified emissions and land use projections. 

The primary objectives of ScenarioMIP are to:

  1. Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.

  2. Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.

  3. Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.

ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities. 

Seven IAM teams participated in the scenario development process. Each scenario has been implemented with multiple IAMs, and a marker scenario was selected from the available model interpretations. The current pre-release comprises the harmonized emissions of the marker scenarios only. Harmonized emissions of additional non-marker quantifications will follow. 

This pre-release hosts limited data, with the publication of more data variables to follow. The available data are the emissions variables that have gone into the climate emulator MAGICC and its climate outcomes. The reported emissions variables are harmonized to CMIP7 historical emissions, and consistent with CMIP7 earth system model forcings: GHG concentrations and gridded emissions, as available on the Earth System Grid Federation (see input4MIPs: https://input4mips-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/).

For more information, please contact:

  • Scientific Lead ScenarioMIP: Keywan Riahi (IIASA, riahi@iiasa.ac.at), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL, Detlef.vanVuuren@pbl.nl)

  • Emissions harmonization and infilling for CMIP7:
    Main contact: Jarmo Kikstra (IIASA, kikstra@iiasa.ac.at), Zebedee Nicholls (Climate Resource, IIASA, Uni Melbourne, zebedee.nicholls@climate-resource.com)
    Team: Annika Högner, Marco Zecchetto

  • ScenarioMIP IAM marker teams:

    • High Emissions Pathway (H) developed by GCAM
      Main contact: Mel George (georgemv@umd.edu)
      Modeling team: Christoph J. Bertram (bertram@umd.edu), Andrew G. Miller, Xin Zhao, Claudia Rodes Bachs, Jay Fuhrman, Rachel Hoesly, Haewon C. McJeon, Brian O'Neill, Yang Ou, Jon Sampedro, Steven J. Smith, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Matt Gidden, Ryna Cui (CGS-UMD [Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA], KAIST, BC3, Peking University)

    • High-to-Low Emissions Pathway (HL) developed by WITCH
      Main contact: Laurent Drouet (laurent.drouet@cmcc.it)
      Modeling team: Lara Aleluia Reis, Marco Gambarini, Cindy Azuero, Massimo Tavoni (CMCC). Specific contributors: Pietro Andreoni (non-CO2, Politecnico di Milano), Nicolas Schlegel (optimization, CMCC), Stefan Frank and Yazhen Wu (GLOBIOM, IIASA)

    • Medium Emissions Pathway (M) developed by IMAGE
      Main contact: Detlef van Vuuren (detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl)
      Modeling team: Vassilis Daioglou, Isabela Tagomori, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Mathijs Harmsen, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Elena Hooijschuur, Maarten van den Berg, Rik van Heerden, Mark Dekker, Jonathan Doelman, Elke Stehfest, Astrid Bos, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Hermen Luchtenbelt (PBL)

    • Medium-to-Low Emissions Pathway (ML) developed by COFFEE
      Main contact: Roberto Schaeffer (roberto@ppe.ufrj.br), Luiz Bernardo Baptista (luizbernardo@ppe.ufrj.br), Gerd Angelkorte (angelkorte@ppe.ufrj.br)
      Modeling team: Pedro Rochedo, Luis Felipe Sivolella, Rebecca Draeger, Pedro Maia, Huang Ken Wei and Alexandre Szklo (COPPE)

    • Low Emissions Pathway (L) developed by MESSAGE-GLOBIOM-GAINS
      Main contact: Oliver Fricko (fricko@iiasa.ac.at), Yazhen Wu (wuyazhen@iiasa.ac.at), Shaohui Zhang (shaohui.zhang@iiasa.ac.at)
      Modelling Team: Oliver Fricko, Yazhen Wu, Shaohui Zhang, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Aneeque Javid, Siddarth Joshi, Diogo Kramel, Alessio Mastrucci, Florian Mazcek, Setu Pelz, Yoga Pratama, Holger Rogner, Jun Shepard, Juliana Arbelaez-Gaviria, Luca Casamassima, Jinfeng Chang, Matt Gidden, Adriana Gomez-Sanabria, Anders Hammer-Stromman, Yiyi Ju, Jarmo Kikstra, Younha Kim, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Marta Kozicka, Tamás Krisztin, David Leclère, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Measrainsey Meng, Amanda Palazzo, Miguel Poblete, Leopold Ringwald, Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis, Pallav Purohit, Gamze Unlu, Adriano Vinca, Fabian Wagner, Wilfried Winiwarter, Xiuming Zhang, Michael Wögerer, Behnam Zakeri, Zbigniew Klimont, Shonali Pachauri, Petr Havlík, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey

    • Low-to-Negative Emissions Pathway (LN) developed by AIM
      Main contact: Shinichiro Fujimori (fujimori.shinichiro.8a@kyoto-u.ac.jp), Osamu Nishiura (nishiura.osamu@nies.go.jp), Tomoko Hasegawa (thase@fc.ritsumei.ac.jp)
      Modeling team: Shotaro Mori, Ken Oshiro, Koga Yamazaki, Ryo Totake, Diego Silva, Kiyoshi Takahashi

    • Very Low Emissions Pathway (VL) developed by REMIND-MAGPIE
      Main contact: Elmar Kriegler (kriegler@pik-potsdam.de), Gunnar Luderer (gunnar.luderer@pik-potsdam.de), Alexander Popp (popp@pik-potsdam.de)
      Modeling team: Gabriel Abrahão, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Florian Humpenöder, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Fabrice Lécuyer, Leon Merfort, Jessica Strefler, Edna Bacca, Clara Bachorz, Felicitas Beier, Falk Benke, Benni Bodirsky, David Chen, Mike Crawford, Tabea Dorndorf, Jakob Dürrwächter, Alex Hagen, Robin Hasse, Jens Heinke, Johanna Hoppe, Kristine Karstens, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Alex Köberle, Debbora Leip, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Rahel Mandaroux, Anne Merfort, Jarusch Muessel, Christoph Müller, Adrian Odenweller, Robert Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Patrick Rein, Renato Rodrigues, Ricarda Rosemann, Tonn Rueter, Robert Salzwedel, Pascal Sauer, Felix Schreyer, Georg Schröter, Leonie Schweiger, Misko Stevanović, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Patrick von Jeetze, Xiaoxi Wang, Pascal Weigmann, Isabelle Weindl, Bennet Weiß, Jiarui Zhong (PIK)

  • Air pollution: please contact Shaohui Zhang (zhangsha@iiasa.ac.at), Zbigniew Klimont (klimont@iiasa.ac.at) (IIASA)

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This dataset provides early access to the scenario data while in parallel the IAM teams are preparing the documentation and scientific manuscripts that should be used by the users as the citation of the underlying scenario data.

The scenario data was provided by the IAM teams early February 2026. After this point, the data can be used for scientific purposes. Scientific references for the scenario data will become available latest by 1 September 2026. This is the date when citable preprints of the underlying IAM publications are expected to become available.

The following restrictions apply to the data during the “early access period” between February 1, 2026 and August 31, 2026:

  1. Data can be used only upon registration at the ScenarioMIP Explorer or by requesting to download via Zenodo.
  2. The data can be used only for scientific purposes aimed at the production of peer-reviewed publications. The posting of the scenario data and/or analyses based on the data on social media or other dissemination (in the public or the press) is thus strictly prohibited.
  3. Data is provided only for own use by those registered at the ScenarioMIP Explorer or by requesting to download via Zenodo. Sharing with third parties is not allowed.
  4. Submissions of papers using the IAM scenario data need to wait until the descriptions of the underlying IAM scenarios are published as preprints. Papers based on the IAM scenario data should not be submitted until after 01 September 2026, when preprints of the underlying IAM documentation become available.
  5. Papers using the data should use the appropriate citation (guidelines will become available in Spring 2026)
  6. The use of the data in the IPCC Reports is allowed using the ScenarioMIP database as a preliminary citation. The IPCC Authors should make sure that citations in the report are updated in Spring 2026 when the citation guidance becomes available.

After the “early access” period (ending at 01 September 2026), above restrictions are lifted and the data can be used according to the database license. Users are expected to follow standard scientific practice, using the citation guidance provided by the IAM teams involved in the ScenarioMIP effort. The IAM teams will provide preprints of their articles and create a DOI for the data.

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