Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Habitat Drivers of Thesium chinense Turcz. Distribution under Climate Change: An Integrated Geodetector-MaxEnt Modeling Analysis

Aims: Thesium chinense Turcz. is a medicinal plant with broad-spectrum antibacterial properties, yet its wild resources are declining due to physiological constraints, over-harvesting and climate change. This study aims to clarify habitat drivers, spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitats under climate change, and environmental correlates of its key bioactive constituents, thereby supporting the conservation and sustainable utilization of this species.

Location: China.

Methods: Based on 297 valid occurrence records and 10 environmental factors screened by Pearson correlation analysis, we integrated the Geographical Detector (Geodetector) and Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to identify key driving factors and their interactive effects, predict potential suitable habitats under present and three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios, and explore the relationships between ThesiuminⅠand environmental variables.

Results: Precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), temperature seasonality (bio4) and November solar radiation (srad11) were the primary environmental drivers. Habitat differentiation was primarily temperature-driven and co-regulated by multiple factors. Suitable habitats varied considerably across future climate scenarios, with the SSP2-4.5 scenario was most conducive to habitat maintenance and optimization. ThesiuminⅠcontent was significantly positively correlated with maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5) and precipitation seasonality (bio15).

Conclusions: Temperature and climatic hydrothermal synergy dominate govern habitat suitability for T. chinense. Moderately high summer temperatures and precipitation seasonality facilitate the active ingredient accumulation. These findings provide a scientific basis for the conservation, cultivation and sustainable management of this species.