Signal Decoherence in Malaria Transmission

Malaria transmission depends on a tightly constrained reproductive transition occurring when mature gametocytes are ingested by a mosquito. While most interventions focus on reducing parasite burden, successful transmission requires coordinated activation, gamete formation, fertilization, and early mosquito-stage development.

This work introduces a transmission parameter, Φ_trans, integrating gametocyte density, viability, activation coherence, fertilization success, and mosquito-stage establishment into a single multiplicative framework.

We propose that transmission can be suppressed not by eliminating parasites, but by disrupting the coherence of this reproductive transition. In particular, the Pfs48/45–Pfs230 surface complex is identified as a reproductive coherence node whose perturbation can collapse transmission even in the presence of viable parasites.

The model predicts threshold-driven behavior in transmission dynamics and provides a conceptual basis for supra-additive effects observed in transmission-blocking interventions.

This reframes malaria transmission as a problem of signal coherence within a constrained reproductive system, identifying a functional vulnerability that can be exploited for intervention design.