Predicting the Path of Progress: A Trend and Forecast Analysis of PMC Expenditure

This study presents a statistical examination of the capital expenditure pattern of the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) over the period 2016-2025. Using secondary data, the study evaluates annual expenditure summary statistics, trends, pre and post-COVID variations, and long-term behavior through graphical and numerical methods. A linear regression model is employed to assess the significance of the upward trend in municipal capital spending, while an ARIMA time-series model is used to forcast expenditure for the subsequent three years (2026-2028). The result reveals a stable expenditure pattern in the pre-COVID years, followed by a substantial rise after 2022, indicating renewed infrastructure investment. Forecasting results suggest that expenditure is expected to stabilize around the 2025 level, widening uncertainty in future years. Overall, the study provides insights into PMC’s expenditure trajectory and offers evidence-based support for future budget planning and decision making