A Composite Maintenance Budget Framework for Maximum Lifespan Determination: Integrating Mitochondrial ROS Production, Membrane Peroxidation Index, and Allostatic Load

NOTE: An updated and corrected version of this manuscript is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20574549 and should be cited in preference to this earlier version.

This paper proposes that allostatic load is the missing third factor in the determination of maximum lifespan across species. Allostatic load is the cumulative energetic cost of chronic stress response. Combined with mitochondrial ROS production per unit O₂ and membrane peroxidation index, it forms a composite maintenance budget that predicts lifespan where single-factor theories fail.

Three established mechanistic frameworks have dominated the field: Rate of Living Theory, Oxidative Stress Theory, and the Membrane Pacemaker Theory. Each captures a real biological signal. Each fails on a characteristic class of species. The paper shows that the variable doing compensatory work in each resolved outlier is allostatic load. The three factors together form a testable framework for comparative aging biology.

An a priori prediction test across five ecologically diverse species (bowhead whale, naked mole rat, American alligator, common swift, Hydra) was directionally correct in all five cases. Predictions were locked in writing before lifespan data were consulted.

This is a Perspective paper. The framework generates falsifiable predictions. It identifies cross-species operationalization of allostatic load as the highest-priority empirical gap.