Economic drivers and barriers to democratisation

This policy paper provides insights into economic drivers and barriers to democratisation in each of the six EU eastern neighbourhood (EN) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) and at the regional level. It offers seven region-level and fifteen country-specific recommendations regarding the integration of economic considerations into the EU’s democracy promotion policies towards its EN.

At the regional level, the paper suggests that the EU takes long-term fragmentation as a starting point for developing any policies vis-à-vis the region. It is recommended to approach the deepening of economic ties with most of the EN countries through a strategic lens, and thus as an investment into the EU’s ability to withstand the rapidly growing geoeconomic competition with Russia and China. Whilst preserving the Eastern Partnership (EaP) as a region-wide forum for dialogue and engagement is recommended, the EU should also be encouraged, to the extent possible, to foster in a much more concerted and systematic manner intra-regional economic integration, for instance, involving Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan under the auspices of the Organization for Democracy and Development (GUAM). Both economic potential and democracy in the EN region can be also encouraged through the development of EU- and EU member state-level reintegration support programmes for highly-qualified professionals, originating from the region, and continued funding of educational and capacity-building programmes for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) leaders in the region. Finally, the paper argues to consider – whenever the political circumstances allow – engaging in dialogue with national authorities in EN countries on the improvement and change of national immigration and residence policies for the purpose of attracting human capital from other world regions (e.g. Central and Southeast Asia, Latin America) to move to the EN on a temporal or permanent basis, not least with a view to fill knowledge and expertise gaps and enhance innovation capacity.