Spacetime Substantivalism XV: Bayesian Constraints on Effective Spacetime Propagation from Gravitational-Wave Observations: A Hierarchical Analysis of GWTC-3 (实体时空论第十五篇:基于引力波观测的有效时空传播贝叶斯约束——对 GWTC-3 的分层分析研究)

This is the 15th paper in the "Spacetime Substantivalism (Constitutive Spacetime Dynamics, CSSD)" series (Papers 0-14). The core of this research is founded on the empirical verdict of gravitational waves, which reveals that spacetime is not a vacuum void but a physical entity with extreme rigidity and internal homogeneity. By treating gravitational wave data as a direct probe of spacetime's constitutive properties, we have derived the "Substantive Lattice" model. This framework successfully provides a physical restoration of the light-speed postulate and the Lorentz transformation, reinterpreting them as dynamic responses to "Electromagnetic Load" within the lattice.

In this work, we perform a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of ~70 binary black hole events from the GWTC-3 catalog to constrain effective spacetime propagation effects. We introduce a dimensionless constitutive parameter (beta) that modifies the frequency-domain waveform. Our analysis yields a 95% credible bound of |beta| < 9e-23 and a Bayes factor (ln B = -4.1) favoring General Relativity (GR). These results indicate that while spacetime exhibits constitutive cumulative effects on cosmological scales (as shown in Paper XIIII), it reproduces GR as an emergent infrared fixed point at interferometric scales. This constraint implies that any microscopic spacetime structure must reproduce GR-like propagation within a characteristic length scale of < 10^-20 m.

本文是“实体时空论(实体时空动力学,CSSD)”系列研究的第15篇。本项研究的核心逻辑出发点是由引力波探测实验所证实的物理事实:引力波的传播特性揭示了时空并非抽象的几何背景,而是一个具有极高刚性、内部均匀性的物理实体。通过将引力波数据视为探测时空本构属性的直接探针,我们推导出了“实体点阵”模型。该框架成功实现了对光速不变假设和洛伦茨变换的物理还原,将其重新阐释为物质在点阵介质中运动时的“电磁负载”响应。

在本篇研究中,我们对 GWTC-3 目录中的约70个双黑洞事件进行了分层贝叶斯分析,以约束有效时空传播效应。我们引入了一个无量纲本构参数 beta 来修正频域波形。分析结果给出了 beta < 9e-23 (95% 置信度) 的严苛上限,且贝叶斯因子 (ln B = -4.1) 表明数据更倾向于支持广义相对论。这一结果意味着,尽管时空在宇宙学尺度上表现出本构累积效应(如第14篇所示),但在干涉测量尺度下,它作为涌现的红外不动点回归了广义相对论。该约束表明,任何微观时空结构在当前探测精度下必须在小于 10^-20 米的特征尺度内还原类引力传播特性。