Probabilistic Analysis of Conditional Creature Selection: Militia Bugler — A Pauper Format Case Study in Magic: The Gathering

We present a probabilistic framework for analyzing Militia Bugler, a conditional creature selection effect in Magic: The Gathering that looks at the top four cards of the library and may put a creature card with power 2 or less into the player's hand. We derive exact expressions for hit and miss probabilities under both complete and incomplete information, analyze the selection depth (how many eligible creatures the player sees), and quantify how deck composition and game state affect the reliability of the trigger.