Toward 1.5°C household footprints: scenarios of lifestyle change adoption in Europe under industrial decarbonization

Lifestyle changes can play a crucial role in aligning household carbon footprints with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. However, the adoption levels required of these changes may vary even among similar countries. Additionally, the combined effects of socioeconomic and technological changes on lifestyle-based mitigation potential remain underexplored. Here, we estimate the population-wide adoption levels at which three lifestyle change portfolios of 47 individual consumption changes reach 1.5°C-compatible footprint targets for five European Union countries (Germany, Spain, Hungary, Latvia, and Sweden) in 2030 and 2050, evaluated within an EXIOBASE-based scenario model reflecting 1.5°C-compatible industrial decarbonization. We assessed per-capita carbon footprints under lifestyle change adoption scenarios in comparison to 1.5°C-compatible targets, estimated potential financial savings, and evaluated the effects of various rebound re-spending patterns. Our scenario analysis indicates that while all five countries have a theoretical pathway to 1.5°C-compatible household carbon footprints in 2030, high adoption levels of high-impact lifestyle changes were required, especially for countries with higher initial footprints. In 2050, the 1.5°C target was reached in only two of five countries through (nearly) universal high-impact lifestyle change adoption across the population combined with a decarbonized background system. Directing re-spending from the average lifestyle change consumption pattern toward low-emission categories yielded less benefit than avoiding high-emission rebounds in our scenario analysis. Overall, our results show how achieving 1.5°C-compatible lifestyles in high-income countries would require a comprehensive transformation of both individual consumption patterns and systemic structures, which we discuss may not be feasible in practice with existing socioeconomic constraints.