Civilization Supply Theory (CST): Supply Chain Constraints on Interplanetary and Interstellar Expansion

This work introduces Civilization Supply Theory (CST), a framework for understanding the constraints governing the expansion and long-term survivability of technological civilizations. CST models civilization as a distributed supply network rather than a collection of independent nodes, emphasizing the necessity of supply chain closure for sustained operation.

The theory proposes that only systems achieving full internal supply chain closure (Level 1 nodes) can maintain technological continuity without regression. Partial or prebuilt systems, including autonomous or AI-driven colonies, may extend operational lifetimes but remain subject to eventual degradation due to incomplete supply chains and cumulative failure.

The model further demonstrates that over sufficiently long timescales, including cosmological scales, any system lacking full closure will experience regression with probability approaching one. This provides a potential explanation for the absence of persistent, large-scale, autonomous technological systems in observed space (Fermi paradox context).

CST is substrate-independent and applies equally to biological and autonomous systems, suggesting that expansion is constrained not by energy alone, but by the ability to establish and maintain distributed, self-sustaining supply networks.