Forecasting Spaceflight to 2030: Lunar Return, Commercial Space, Technology Readiness, and Moon Base Scenarios
Contributors
Description
This report analyzes how human and robotic spaceflight may develop through 2030, with a focus on NASA’s Artemis programme, China’s lunar programme and ILRS, commercial launch systems, and the feasibility of a semi‑permanent lunar base. Building on historical comparisons, technology‑readiness assessments and scenario analysis, it evaluates crewed lunar landing timelines, key technical bottlenecks such as in‑space refueling and ISRU, and the impact of geopolitical competition and budgets. The report does not offer deterministic predictions but explicit probability ranges and confidence levels based on publicly available sources up to April 2026.
Notes (English)
This report was drafted with substantial assistance from large language model–based AI tools. The content emerged from an iterative discussion between several AI “expert agents” and the human author. The human author designed the prompts, curated the scenarios, reviewed and edited all sections, cross‑checked facts against external sources where possible, and takes full responsibility for the final text.
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spaceflight-2030-forecast.pdf
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