FRAUD CONTROL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA 1999-2024

Abstract: The goal of the study was to determine the effect of fraud control on economic development in Nigeria using annual timeseries data spanning the democratic era in Nigeria 1999–2024. Economic development was measured using real GDP growth, Human Development Index, and unemployment rate. Autoregressive distributed lag was used to determine the long run and short run relationship amongst the variables. Results confirmed fraud prevalence exerts a statistically significant negative effect on real GDP growth and human development in the long run, while simultaneously exerting positive and increasing impact on unemployment. Conversely, fraud detection and control measures demonstrated a positive and significant influence on economic growth and HDI, and a negative effect on unemployment. The findings reinforce institutional economic theory, which posits that governance quality and institutional integrity are critical determinants of sustainable development outcomes. Consistent with prior empirical studies, the results suggest that fraud distorts public resource allocation, discourages productive investment, and weakens socio-economic welfare systems. The study concludes that effective fraud control mechanisms are fundamental to Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation. It recommends strengthening institutional frameworks, digitalizing public financial management systems, enhancing judicial efficiency, and adopting preventive anti-fraud strategies to promote sustainable growth, improved human development outcomes, and labor market stability.