Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Published March 31, 2026 | Version v1
Preprint Open

Sector-detailed urban Greenhouse Gas Emission Futures derived from the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble

Authors/Creators

  • 1. ROR icon Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 2. ROR icon Technische Universität Berlin
  • 3. ROR icon Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 4. ROR icon University of Sussex
  • 5. ROR icon University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  • 6. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 7. ROR icon Imperial College London
  • 8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Resarch (PIK)
  • 9. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Program (PPE), Coppe, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro / Rio de Janeiro – Brazil
  • 10. Worldpop, University of Southampton School of Geography and Environmental Science, Southampton, England, SO17 1BJ, UK
  • 11. Center for Global Sustainability (CGS), University of Maryland
  • 12. University of Szczecin

Description

Required emission reductions for reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement have been extensively analysed in scenarios of integrated assessment modeling. However, the contribution of urban areas in aggregate, by world region and  by city type, remains underexplored. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework to downscale global emissions pathways to urban areas, differentiated by region and city type. Ambitious climate change mitigation, could deliver 21 GtCO₂e of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in urban areas by 2050 relative to continuation of current policies and trends, primarily by transitioning away from fossil fuels for electricity and heat supply, deep decarbonization of industry, and mitigation action in the transportation and buildings sectors. Mitigation potential is concentrated in established cities as well as in rapidly growing cities globally, reflecting their high current per-capita emission levels. Various regions of Asia are characterized by high urbanization, and therefore account for a dominant share of global urban emissions and their reduction potential.  These findings underscore the central role of cities in achieving global climate targets and highlight the importance of differentiated mitigation strategies across regions and city types.

Files

1_LudererEtAl_UrbanGHGFuturesScenarioMIP_Submitted.pdf

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Additional details

Dates

Submitted
2026-03-31
Manuscript submitted to journal

Software

Programming language
Python , Jupyter Notebook
Development Status
Active