Integrated AHP–HOR Framework for Optimal Fuel Station Location and Distribution Risk Mitigation in Urban Areas

Rapid urban growth and increasing transportation demand have intensified the need for efficient fuel station location planning and reliable fuel distribution systems. This study aims to determine the optimal retail fuel station location and analyze distribution risks by integrating multi-criteria decision-making and risk management approaches. A quantitative framework combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the House of Risk model is employed to evaluate location alternatives and prioritize mitigation strategies. The results show that traffic and population are the most influential criteria, with weights of 0.50 and 0.26, indicating that demand coverage and accessibility are critical determinants. Among the evaluated alternatives, Medan Marelan emerges as the most suitable location due to its high traffic density and population concentration. Risk analysis identifies transportation-related factors, particularly traffic accidents and uncertain traffic conditions, as the most significant contributors to distribution disruptions. Preventive actions such as routine maintenance, employee training, and route optimization are identified as the most effective mitigation strategies. These findings highlight the importance of integrating strategic planning and operational risk management in fuel infrastructure development. The proposed AHP–HOR framework provides a systematic and practical approach for improving decision-making and enhancing supply chain reliability in rapidly developing urban areas.