Where We Have Gone Before – On the Role of Perceived Collective Continuity and the Support of SETI, and L estimations in the Drake Equation

NOTE: Parts of this video have been edited to remove copywritten material.

The current effort to conduct a comprehensive and conclusive search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has already outlasted some of its scientific pioneers. Due to the uncertainty of parameters, astronomical search space, and the cosmic speed limit on information, SETI is a generational project. Mobilizing people to support something that is meant to benefit not them but future generations is eased if appealing to perceived collective continuity (PCC), i.e., the belief that one’s own group persists through time even if its members are replaced. Only that way can “humanity” as a species contact interstellar neighbors and potentially benefit or suffer from the resulting interaction. SETI already acknowledges this continuity within the Drake equation’s L parameter (the Lifespan of a technological civilization). Due to its motivating effect, we hypothesized a positive association between the PCC of humanity and the support of searching for extraterrestrial life, plus a higher confidence that humanity will ever find evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. Given the well-known anthropocentrism within thinking about extraterrestrials, we hypothesize that L estimations are positively predicted by affirming the PCC of humanity. Results suggest that facets of PCC were positively and negatively associated with the support of searching for extraterrestrial life and intelligence while being younger and female led to less affirmation. Alternative models supported the effect for gender and age but render the effect of PCC less certain. There was less support for the hypothesis that people orient their L estimation on their PCC affirmation or that these variables influence the estimated probability of SETI success. More research is needed on whether representing humanity as time enduring group can ease supporting generational projects.