Code of the model for the TSE Surveillance Opinion

WinbugsCode – Code of the Bayesian model for WinBUGS, including priors, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) settings used to estimate infection prevalence and predict future detectable BSE cases. 

Input data to run the model: 

• AgeOnsetDistCEUBSE – A lognormal distribution describing the probability of being clinical case by age category (age at clinical onset) of classical BSE (C-BSE) in EU cattle. 

• AgeOnsetDistHLEUBSE - A lognormal distribution describing the probability of being clinical case by age category (age at clinical onset)  of atypical BSE strains (H- and L-types). 

• AgeOnsetTestLogisticSimEUBSE - A logistic function modelling the sensitivity of diagnostic test, i.e., the probability of detection at t months prior to clinical onset for C-BSE. 

• AgeOnsetTestLogisticSimEUHLBSE - A logistic function modelling the sensitivity of diagnostic test, i.e., the probability of detection at t months prior to clinical onset for atypical BSE (H- and L-types), derived from classical BSE data due to limited empirical sensitivity information for atypical cases. 

• NCattle - Total number of cattle in the EU per year for the period 2008 – 2024.   

• Omega – Age specific probabilities describing the likelihood that cattle enter each surveillance stream (FS, ES, HS). 

• Sa - A survival function representing the probability that an animal remains alive up to age a.