Predictive Modelling and Analysis of Yarn Breakage Rates in Spinning Processes A Poisson-Process Based Stress–Strength Interference Approach

Yarn breakage in ring-spinning remains one of the most significant contributors to production downtime and quality loss in modern textile mills. This paper presents a first-principles predictive model that quantifies the end-break rate (EBR) expressed as breaks per 100 spindles per hour using a Poisson stochastic framework. The model integrates four independently computed tension components — spinning tension (Sₜ), ballooning tension (Bₜ), winding tension (Wₜ), and aerodynamic drag tension (Aₜ) — with fibre characterisation via the Spinning Consistency Index (SCI) to derive the mean link-frequency at the front-roller nip. The probability of breakage is modelled as an exponential decay function of the stress–strength ratio (mean yarn strength / total tension), scaled by the total number of fibre-bundle links traversing the nip per unit time across 1,008 spindles. Applying the model to a 30s Ne carded yarn with a SCI of 131.50 yields a predicted EBR of 5.91 breaks per 100 spl/hr. Sensitivity analysis reveals that spindle speed, top-arm load, and mean yarn strength are the most influential parameters. The model provides process engineers with a tractable, real-time diagnostic tool for root-cause analysis and parameter optimisation, thereby reducing waste, improving yield, and advancing the state of predictive quality control in ring-spinning. Limitations including the assumption of constant environmental conditions and the empirical derivation of the proportionality constant are discussed in detail.