The Economic Toll of Grid Fragility: Quantifying the Costs and National Security Implications of Converging Physical, Cyber, Infrastructure, and Demand-Side Threats to the U.S. Electrical Grid

The United States electrical grid, the backbone of the nation's economic and national security infrastructure, faces an unprecedented convergence of physical, cyber, infrastructure, and demand-side threats that collectively impose staggering economic costs on American businesses, households, and government operations. This doctoral dissertation employs a convergent mixed-methods research design to quantify the aggregate economic toll of grid fragility, integrating Value-of-Lost-Load (VOLL) estimation, Leontief input-output modeling, multiple regression analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the full spectrum of direct and cascading economic impacts. Drawing upon federal datasets including EIA Forms 860, 861, and 930, FERC Form 714, EPA eGRID, and NERC reliability reports spanning 2006 through 2025, the study analyzes reliability metrics, infrastructure aging patterns, demand growth trajectories, and cross-sector economic interdependencies across all seven NERC reliability regions. Findings reveal that power outages and grid disruptions impose an estimated $712.66 billion in annual economic losses, with the industrial sector bearing 59.1% of total costs, followed by commercial (32.6%) and residential (8.3%) sectors. Approximately 30.5% of U.S. generation capacity (404,142 MW) exceeds 40 years of operational age and faces elevated retirement risk. Demand growth has accelerated to 2.51% year-over-year, driven by data center proliferation and transportation electrification. Cross-sector cascading analysis using Leontief multipliers estimates total economic impacts between $1.07 and $1.78 trillion when indirect and induced effects are incorporated. A multiple regression model (R² = 0.613) confirms that SAIDI duration, customer exposure, and generator age are statistically significant predictors of regional outage costs. Scenario projections indicate that without targeted intervention, annual costs will exceed $1075.5 billion by 2030, whereas a comprehensive grid modernization strategy could yield savings exceeding $300 billion. These findings establish grid fragility as a quantifiable economic and national security crisis demanding immediate, coordinated policy action across federal, state, and utility stakeholders.