The War in Ukraine: Deterrence, Rituals, and Ontological Security

NATO leaders have framed the delivery of arms to Ukraine not just as crucial strategic assistance, but also as part of a deterrence strategy. The deterrent message NATO leaders conveyed through rhetoric and actions was that they would continue to deliver weapons to Ukraine to deny Russia victory, thereby aiming to achieve deterrence by denial. I suggest that the adoption of this unique strategy requires an explanation. This article argues that NATO’s strong attachment to deterrence practice can be explained by deterrence becoming a stabilizing mechanism that addresses a number of interrelated ontological security needs, such as the need to protect its collective identity, manage tensions over shared values among its members, and navigate its relations with Ukraine. In this context, reliance on deterrence offered a way to reinforce NATO’s established narratives and routines. A key means of sustaining this dynamic, I assert, lies in the use of rituals, such as those surrounding NATO summits and military training. The rituals help to constitute extended deterrent threats by symbolizing power and solidarity with the protégé, thus legitimizing the deterrent threats and enhancing credibility. Moreover, they simultaneously contribute to ontological security by providing certainty and control, affirming collective identity, and reducing anxiety.

The paper is part of the GSQ Special Forum 'Ritual Action in World Politics', guest edited by Maria Mälksoo. The research and publication of the Special Forum has been supported by the ERC RITUAL DETERRENCE Project (101043468).