Evaluation Methodology for UAP cases at GEIPAN

This document presents the case-evaluation methodology developed and used within the French UAP office GEIPAN and introduced publicly by Michael Vaillant at the 2022 CAIPAN II international conference (https://www.cnes-geipan.fr/en/node/59754) 

Its main contribution is to show that evaluating unidentified aerospace phenomena is not only a matter of collecting testimonies, but also of structuring the investigation in a way that reduces cognitive bias and improves consistency in case assessment. The presentation emphasizes three core stages: (1) as exhaustive and neutral a collection of information as possible, using tools such as the GEIPAN questionnaire and cognitive interview techniques; (2) a critical comparison of multiple explanatory hypotheses rather than a premature focus on a single favored explanation; and (3) a structured evaluation of the case through two key indicators, Strangeness and the Robustness of the available information.

A major strength of this approach is that it encourages investigators to reason "like judges rather than advocates": examining evidence both for and against each hypothesis, identifying weak points, and making the analytical path more explicit and auditable. In that sense, this presentation does not merely propose a classification grid; it outlines an operational methodology designed to make case assessment more transparent, reproducible, and less vulnerable to subjective interpretation.

As a historical reference, this document captures an early public formulation of a GEIPAN-derived framework for UAP case analysis, intended for a broad audience including investigators, practitioners, and interested members of the public.