A Theoretical Framework for AfCFTA-Induced Supply Chain Reconfiguration and Resilience in Southern Africa: A Seychellois Perspective

{ "background": "The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) necessitates a fundamental re-evaluation of regional supply chain architectures. Southern Africa, characterised by diverse economies and logistical challenges, presents a critical case. The unique position of Seychelles, as a small island developing state within this region, offers a distinct lens through which to theorise the interplay between continental integration and supply chain resilience.", "purpose and objectives": "This article develops a novel theoretical framework to analyse how AfCFTA-induced trade liberalisation drives supply chain reconfiguration in Southern Africa. It specifically aims to conceptualise the mechanisms through which a small, geographically peripheral economy can leverage the agreement to enhance its supply chain resilience.", "methodology": "The study employs a deductive, theory-building methodology. It synthesises core principles from international business, economic geography, and complex adaptive systems theory to construct an integrated framework. The framework is then contextualised and refined through a structured analysis of Seychelles' strategic economic position and documented trade policy responses.", "key insights": "The framework posits that successful reconfiguration hinges on strategic pivots towards regional service-oriented hubs and niche product specialisation. A central proposition is that resilience for smaller states will be derived not from scale, but from enhanced digital connectivity and agile, multi-modal logistics partnerships, reducing traditional maritime dependency by a theorised significant margin.", "conclusion": "The proposed framework provides a structured basis for understanding the non-linear and multi-level impacts of AfCFTA on regional supply chains. It challenges assumptions that benefits will flow uniformly, arguing instead for a strategic, capability-based approach to integration, particularly for smaller economies.", "recommendations": "Policymakers in similar economies should prioritise investments in trade facilitation infrastructure and digital platforms. Firms are advised to develop adaptive strategies focusing on regional value chain integration in high-value, low-bulk sectors to capitalise on new market access.", "key words": "AfCFTA, supply chain resilience, theoretical framework, regional integration, small island developing