DOES CONSERVING FORESTS REDUCE POVERTY? MICROECONOMIC EVIDENCE FROM THE GUAYAS PROVINCE, ECUADOR

The relationship between environmental conservation and social well-being remains a topic of debate in the scientific literature, especially in developing countries where poverty and pressure on natural resources coexist. This study empirically analyzes the relationship between forest cover and the probability of poverty at the individual level in the province of Guayas, Ecuador, integrating socioeconomic microdata from the National Survey of Employment, Unemployment, and Underemployment (ENEMDU 2023) with territorial information on forest cover from MapBiomas. Using a weighted Logit model with robust standard errors grouped by canton, the study assesses whether a greater forest cover is associated with better living conditions for the population. The results show that forest cover does not have a statistically significant effect on the probability of poverty, once demographic, educational, and productive integration characteristics are controlled for. In contrast, the sector of economic activity and other structural socioeconomic factors emerge as the main determinants of well-being. These findings suggest that environmental conservation, while fundamental to ecological sustainability, does not automatically translate into socioeconomic improvements without economic and institutional mechanisms to transform natural capital into real productive opportunities. The study provides relevant empirical evidence for the contemporary debate on poverty and the environment, highlighting the need for integrated public policies that link forest protection with territorial development strategies, productive inclusion, and a green economy. In this sense, the research contributes to a more realistic and critical understanding of the limitations and potential of forest conservation as a poverty reduction tool.