The Saker Index: Incentive-Driven Weekly Mapping of Geopolitical Escalation

Abstract.

The Saker Index is an operational methodology for incentive-driven mapping of short-term geopolitical escalation. Drawing on a hierarchy of observable signals (costly vs cheap) the Index prioritizes weekly windows to reduce noise and surface decision-relevant signals. The framework aggregates multiple classes of publicly accessible information — mobility and operational indicators, event reporting, economic markers and diplomatic communications — while intentionally abstracting specific vendor names to protect operational integrity. The preprint describes the conceptual framework, mathematical formulation of incentive-weighted payoffs, the Escalation Risk Score (ERS, 0–100), validation strategy and governance. Advanced modules such as the Black Saker Report (detailed weak-signal consolidation) are described at a conceptual level; their full methodological treatment will be published separately.

Keywords: geopolitical risk; escalation; game theory; early warning; incentive mapping; Saker Index.