Geophysical Coherence Measurement (GCM): A Polemical Proposal for a New Measurement Standard in Earth-System Hazard Science

Catastrophe modeling has spent fifty years trying to predict events it cannot predict. The loss is not in the forecasting models — it is in the measurement standard that precedes them. Existing geophysical frameworks treat tectonic, atmospheric, cryospheric, oceanic, and magnetospheric hazards as isolated phenomena. They are not. They are regime deformations propagating across structural seams — boundary interfaces where energy, stress, and information transfer concentrates before rupture. No current framework reads them as such.
Geophysical Coherence Measurement (GCM) proposes the measurement architecture that existing systems lack. Its validation standard is not event prediction — it is minute-resolution temporal reconstruction of hazard-regime deformation, rupture propagation, and recovery across timestamped observational streams. The required data already exists in public and institutional archives. This bundle formalizes the GCM framework (Part I), develops its operational implications and observatory concept (Part II), and analyzes its economic value architecture across five bands from IP licensing to embedded planetary risk OS (Part III). The central argument is institutional as much as scientific: the global reinsurance sector has already built a distributed geophysical monitoring infrastructure oriented around loss-envelope deformation. GCM proposes to read its structural signals and return derived regime indicators to the scientific community as a condition of commercial use. The field is invited to engage.