GEO-OBS Sprint 2A — Pre-Registration: H_GEO-RUPTURE v2 on Etna 2021–2023

Pre-registration for GEO-OBS Sprint 2A. Frozen before Etna data retrieval. No data has been seen at time of upload.

Hypothesis H_GEO-RUPTURE v2: Two independent proxy estimates of recoverability (Omori-p decay exponent and b-value) show systematic decline in the lead window prior to eruptive events on Etna 2021–2023, compared to quiet periods 2019–2020.

This pre-registration is part of the M.E.M. Research Project testing whether recoverability generalises as a domain-crossing concept across AI governance systems and geophysical systems.