Tension Return to the Sands: -An Analytical Framework for the Analysis of the Third Stage of the Western Sahara Conflict (2020–2024)

Abstract (English)

Abstract

On 13 November 2020, following a Moroccan attack on a peaceful demonstration by Sahrawi civilians in Guergarat, the POLISARIO Front, faced with Moroccan impunity, MINURSO inaction and international apathy, declared an end to the ceasefire and returned to armed struggle.

Morocco, protected by France and the United States, denied the resumption of the conflict and launched a disinformation campaign. As at the beginning of the occupation, the danger of information loss is real. In order to preserve, make available and analyse information, CEAUP has created a digital platform: Western Sahara War Archives. This platform is the basis for the work of this dissertation.

Conflicts are dynamic systems by nature, with multiple moving parts that can alter the dynamics of power at any moment. Even within this system, protracted conflicts are conflicts that are distinguished by being systems with variables that are self-sustaining, self-regenerating, and intra- and inter-influential. Based on a case study, the Western Sahara conflict, this dissertation seeks to contribute to the understanding of some of its characteristics. 

Through the use of conflict analysis methodologies, it aims to answer the following questions: Was the resumption of the conflict inevitable? What elements were directly and indirectly involved in the conflict? What were the networks of power and influence? How did operations unfold on the ground during the first four years of the conflict? This dissertation demonstrates how the resumption of the conflict was impossible to prevent. Decades of external interference, inaction on the part of international institutions, and an aggressive policy of acceptance of faits accomplis on the part of Morocco made mediation efforts impossible.

Key-words: Conflict Studies, Protracted Intractable Conflicts, Colonialism, Western Sahara

Abstract (Portuguese)

Resumo

A 13 de novembro de 2020, depois de um ataque marroquino contra uma manifestação pacífica de civis saharaui em Guergarat, a Frente POLISARIO, perante a impunidade marroquina, a inação da MINURSO e a apatia da comunidade internacional, declarou o fim do cessar-fogo e regressou à luta armada.

Marrocos, protegido pela França e pelos Estados Unidos, denegou o reinício do conflito e lançou uma campanha de desinformação. À semelhança do início da ocupação, o perigo de perda de informação é real. De forma a se conseguir preservar, disponibilizar e analisar informação, o CEAUP criou uma plataforma digital: Western Sahara War Archives. Esta plataforma é a base do trabalho desta dissertação.

Conflitos são sistemas dinâmicos por natureza, com múltiplas partes móveis que a qualquer momento podem alterar as dinâmicas de poder. Mesmo dentro deste sistema, conflitos prolongados são conflitos que se distinguem por serem sistemas com variáveis com que se autossustentam, autorregeneram, intra- e interinfluenciam. Partindo de um estudo de caso, o conflito do Sahara Ocidental, a presente dissertação procura contribuir para a compreensão de algumas das suas características.

Através da utilização de metodologias de análise de conflitos, pretende-se responder às seguintes questões: era o reinício do conflito inevitável? Quais os elementos diretamente e indiretamente envolvidos no conflito? Quais as redes de poder e influências? Como estão a decorrer as operações no terreno durante os primeiros quatro anos do conflito? Esta dissertação demonstra como o reinício do conflito era impossível de travar. Décadas de interferências externas, não ação por parte das instituições internacionais e uma agressiva política de aceitação de factos consumados, por parte de Marrocos, transformaram impossíveis os esforços dos processos de mediação.

Table of contents (English)

Declaração de honra / Declaration of Honour ............................................................................ 7
Agradecimentos ............................................................................................................................ 8
Resumo ....................................................................................................................................... 10
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 11
Image Index ................................................................................................................................ 12
Table Index .................................................................................................................................. 12
Graphic Index .............................................................................................................................. 13
Maps Index ................................................................................................................................. 14
Schematics Index ........................................................................................................................ 15
Figure Index ................................................................................................................................ 15
Heatmap Index ........................................................................................................................... 15
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms .......................................................................................... 16
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 18
Part I-Methodology and conceptual issues ............................................................................... 20
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 20
1.1. The case study .................................................................................................................... 20
1.2. Chronological and Geographical Delimitations ................................................................ 21
1.3. Research goals ................................................................................................................... 22
1.4. Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 24
1.5. Statistical data on the events on the ground .................................................................... 24
1.6. Concepts ............................................................................................................................. 26
2. Conflict ................................................................................................................................... 28
2.1. Conflict - a definable concept? .......................................................................................... 28
2.2. Conflict, a social construct? ............................................................................................... 30
2.3. The moving elements of Conflict- Emotion ...................................................................... 32
2.4. Protracted Intractable Conflicts ........................................................................................ 34
2.5. Conflict Analysis ................................................................................................................. 36
3. How to map a Conflict remotely ........................................................................................... 38
3.1. The information question .................................................................................................. 38
3.2. Problems about the information on the Western Sahara Conflict .................................. 40
3.3. The War communiques ...................................................................................................... 41
3.4. How to transform Qualitative Data into Quantitative Data ............................................ 43
3.5. Chronological Data ............................................................................................................. 43
3.6. Geographical Data ............................................................................................................. 43
3.7. Attack Data......................................................................................................................... 46
3.8. Additional Information ...................................................................................................... 47
4. Database Creation logic ........................................................................................................ 47
Part II – The Conflict: The Project Western Sahara War Archives and its analytical outcomes, and a detailed view of the data ................................................................................................. 49
1. The Conflict Wheel ................................................................................................................ 49
1.1. Context- Western Sahara: Between Colonialism and Freedom ....................................... 50
1.2. The end of the 1st Phase of the Conflict and the start of the 2nd Phase of the Conflict 51
1.3. The complex negotiations ................................................................................................. 53
1.4. The referendum problem .................................................................................................. 58
1.5. A long and slow walk towards Conflict ............................................................................. 60
1.6. A low-intensity protracted conflict enters a new phase (2020-onwards) ....................... 65
1.7. 2020 .................................................................................................................................... 65
1.8. 2021 .................................................................................................................................... 68
1.9. 2022 .................................................................................................................................... 74
1.10. 2023 ........................................................................................................................... 77
1.11. 2024 ........................................................................................................................... 80
1.12. The Stakeholders Analysis- A Triad masked as a Dyad ............................................ 83
1.13. The Conflict Tree ....................................................................................................... 85
1.14. Dynamics ................................................................................................................... 85
1.15. Causations ................................................................................................................. 87
1.16. Options Strategies ..................................................................................................... 87
2. The 3rd Phase of the conflict: a detailed view of the data .................................................. 87
2.1. The Theatre of Operations: Western Sahara – The Data ................................................. 87
2.2. The Chronological Analysis ................................................................................................ 88
2.3. The Geographical Analysis ................................................................................................. 89
2.4. Mega-Level: Occupied Western Sahara ............................................................................ 89
2.5. Macro-Level: The MRs ....................................................................................................... 89
2.6. Meso-Level: The Sectors .................................................................................................... 90
2.7. The UAV/UCAV question ................................................................................................... 90
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 92
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 96
Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 106
Appendix 1- Linear escalatory reciprocal Action-Reaction response of a conflict ............... 107
Appendix 2-Conflict Cycle....................................................................................................... 109
Appendix 3- Spheres of Conflict ............................................................................................. 111
Appendix 4- Political Map of Western Sahara....................................................................... 113
Appendix 5-The Conflict Wheel ............................................................................................. 115
Appendix 6-Protracted Intractable Conflicts Matrix ............................................................. 117
Appendix 7-Action of James Baker as PESG .......................................................................... 119
Appendix 8-SIPRI Arms Transfers Database .......................................................................... 121
Appendix 9-Ranking of the Major Weapons Exporting Countries to Morocco .................... 125
Appendix 10- Conflict Tree ..................................................................................................... 128
Appendix 11- Stakeholder Matrix Analysis ........................................................................... 130
Appendix 12-Coding Scheme for Actor Scores ...................................................................... 140
Appendix 13-Stakeholder Power vs Interest Map ................................................................ 147
Appendix 14- Heatmap-Multidimensional Comparison of the Parties to the Conflict ........ 149
Appendix 16- Radar Chart-Multidimensional Profiles .......................................................... 151
Appendix 17- Western Sahara Conflict Triad ........................................................................ 153
Appendix 18- Conflict Map-Western Sahara ......................................................................... 155
Appendix 19- War Communiques Analysis ............................................................................ 157
Appendix 20- Information Processing.................................................................................... 163
Appendix 21- Data standardisation ....................................................................................... 169
Appendix 22- Event Day/Non-Event Day Relation Matrix .................................................... 174
Appendix 23- Chronological analysis ..................................................................................... 211
Appendix 24- Geographical analysis: Mega-level .................................................................. 218
Appendix 25- Geographical analysis: Macro-level ................................................................ 224
Appendix 26- Geographical analysis: Meso-level .................................................................. 233

Other (English)

Image Index

IMAGE 1-EXAMPLE OF “COMUNICADO MILITAR” OR “PARTE DE GUERRA” AS POSTED IN SPS ................. 158
IMAGE 2- “COMUNICADO MILITAR” NUMBER 345 OF THE 23RD OF NOVEMBER 2021 ............................ 159
IMAGE 3-WHERE TO FIND THE CHRONOLOGICAL INDICATOR IN A COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. SOURCE: COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021 ................... 160
IMAGE 4-SPECIFIC WORD INDICATING THE EXISTENCE OF MULTI LAYERS OF MILITARY ACTION. SOURCE: COMUNICADO MILITARY NUMBER 214 OF 13TH OF JUNE OF 2021. ............................................... 160
IMAGE 5-WHERE TO FIND INFORMATION IN DIFFERENT FORMS OF COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. ON THE LEFT, THE COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021, ON THE RIGHT COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 156 OF 16TH OF APRIL 2021. SOURCE: SPS ..................... 161
IMAGE 6- DIFFERENT FORMS OF COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. ON THE LEFT, THE COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021, ON THE RIGHT COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 156 OF 16TH OF APRIL 2021. SOURCE: SPS ................................................... 161
IMAGE 7- QUANTIFICATION OF ATTACKS EXPRESSED IN COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA OR COMUNICADO MILITAR. SOURCE: COMUNICADO DE GUERRA NUMBER 213 OF 12TH OF JUNE 2021. 162
IMAGE 8- EXAMPLE OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PRESENT IN COMUNICADO DE GUERRA, PARTE DE GUERRA OR COMUNIDADO MILITAR. SOURCE: COMUNIDADO MILITAR NUMBER 205 OF 30TH OF MAY 2021 163
IMAGE 9-WSWA DATA DISTRIBUTION TABLE ................................................................................... 165
IMAGE 10- WSWA DATA DISTRIBUTION TABLE DETAIL: OUED DARAA FIELD ......................................... 165

Table Index

TABLE 1- MOROCCO PURCHASED AERIAL MILITARY HEAVY EQUIPMENT BETWEEN 1975 AND 2024. SOURCE(STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI) 2025) ....................... 124
TABLE 2-RANKING OF THE MAJOR WEAPONS EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO MOROCCO. SOURCE: (SIPRI 1966) ........................................................................................................................................... 126
TABLE 3-STAKEHOLDER MATRIX ...................................................................................................... 139
TABLE 4- SUMMARY OF THE DATA ANALYSED .................................................................................... 164
TABLE 5--MATRIX OF THE COMPOSITION OF THE THEATRE OF OPERATIONS IN WESTERN SAHARA ............ 171
TABLE 6-- MR1 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 172
TABLE 7- MR2 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 173
TABLE 8- MR3 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 173
TABLE 9-EVENT DAY/NON-EVENT DAY RELATION MATRIX ................................................................. 208
TABLE 10-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAY YOY ................................................. 210
TABLE 11-NUMBER OF EVENTS REGISTERED DURING THE FIRST 4 YEARS OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT. ................................................................................................................ 212
TABLE 12- MATRIX OF RELATION OF THE YEAR OF THE CONFLICT AND THE CIVIL YEAR .............................. 212
TABLE 13-WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT MONTHLY TENDENCY ............................................................ 215
TABLE 14-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAYS ....................................................... 215
TABLE 15-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAY YOY ................................................. 216
TABLE 16- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY ............................................................... 216
TABLE 17- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY (%) ......................................................... 217
TABLE 18-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 219
TABLE 19- MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (%). ........................................................................................... 219
TABLE 20-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS-DETAILED OVERVIEW-YEARLY EVOLUTION ....................................... 220
TABLE 21-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS-DETAILED OVERVIEW-MILITARY DISTRIBUTION ................................ 221
TABLE 22-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 225
TABLE 23-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS (%) .................................................................................. 226
TABLE 24-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................. 234
TABLE 25-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS (%) ............................................................ 235

Graphic Index

GRAPHIC 1-RANKING OF THE MAJOR WEAPONS EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO MOROCCO ......................... 127
GRAPHIC 2-STAKEHOLDER VS INTEREST MAP .................................................................................... 148
GRAPHIC 3-RADAR CHART-MULTIDIMENSIONAL PROFILES ................................................................. 152
GRAPHIC 4-TENDENCY OF THE REGISTERED EVENTS OF THE FIRST FOUR YEARS OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA WAR ........................................................................................................ 213
GRAPHIC 5-EVENT DAY VS NON-EVENT DAY RELATION MATRIX ......................................................... 216
GRAPHIC 6- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY (%) ....................................................... 217
GRAPHIC 7-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (%) ........................................................................................... 220
GRAPHIC 8-EVOLUTION OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT 2020-2024 (MEGA-LEVEL) ........................................................................................................................................... 223
GRAPHIC 9-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS (%) ................................................................................ 226
GRAPHIC 10-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 227
GRAPHIC 11-EVOLUTION OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT................................... 232
GRAPHIC 13-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS (%) ........................................................ 236
GRAPHIC 12-NUMBER OF EVENTS PER SECTOR .................................................................................. 236

Maps Index

MAP 1- POLITICAL MAP OF WESTERN SAHARA. SOURCE: MINURSO & OCHA. AUTHOR: JORGE TEIXEIRA ........................................................................................................................................... 114
MAP 2-CONFLICT MAP-WESTERN SAHARA ...................................................................................... 156
MAP 3- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP- GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF ............................................... 166
MAP 4-EXAMPLE OF AN ATTACK MAP- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP-WEEK 103: 24-10-2022 – 30-10-2022. GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF. SOURCE: WSWA ........................................................... 167
MAP 5-EXAMPLE OF AN ANALASIS ATTACK MAP- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP-YEAR 2. GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF. SOURCE: WSWA ............................................................................................ 168
MAP 6--WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP: MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (FOUR YEARS COMPARISON). SOURCE: WSWA. AUTHOR: SELF ......................................................................................................... 222
MAP 7-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 1 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 228
MAP 8-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 2 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 229
MAP 9-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 3 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 230
MAP 10-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 4 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 231
MAP 11- NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 1 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 237
MAP 12-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 2 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 238
MAP 13-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 3 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 239
MAP 14-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 4 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 240

Schematics Index

SCHEMATIC 1- LINEAR ESCALATORY RECIPROCAL ACTION-REACTION RESPONSE OF A CONFLICT. SOURCE: (CLAUSEWITZ 2023) .............................................................................................................. 108
SCHEMATIC 2- CONFLICT CYCLE. SOURCE: (CLAUSEWITZ 2023) ........................................................... 110
SCHEMATIC 3. THE SPHERES OF CONFLICT......................................................................................... 112
SCHEMATIC 4- THE CONFLICT WHEEL. SOURCE: (MASON AND RYCHARD 2005) .................................... 116
SCHEMATIC 5-ACTION OF JAMES BAKER AS PESG ............................................................................. 120

Figure Index

FIGURE 1-PROTRACTED INTRACTABLE CONFLICTS MATRIX. ................................................................. 118
FIGURE 2- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT TREE ................................................................................... 129
FIGURE 3-WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT TRIANGLE: CONFLICT TRIAD .................................................... 154

Heatmap Index

HEATMAP 1-MULTIDIMENSIONAL COMPARISON OF THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT ................................ 150

Other (English)

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
ACLED………… ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION & EVENT DATA PROJECT
AU…………… AFRICAN UNION
CEAUP………. CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIADE DO PORTO
DMZ………… DEMILITARIZED ZONE
ELPS.….…….. EJÉRCITO DE LIBERACIÓN DEL PUEBLO SAHARAUI
FAR…………. FORCÉS ARMÉ ROYAL
FRENTE POLISARIO … FRENTE DE LIBERACIÓN DE SAGUÍA EL HAMRA Y RÍO DE ORO
GIS ……………………. GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM
ICJ ……………………. INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
ISC.……………………. INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE COUNCIL
ISR…………………….. INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE
ISTAR…………………INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, TARGET ACQUISITION AND RECONNAISSANCE
MALE…………………MEDIUM ALTITUDE LONG ENDURANCE
MINURSO……………. MISSION DES NATIONS UNIES POUR L'ORGANISATION D'UN RÉFÉRENDUM AU SAHARA OCCIDENTAL
MUN-T………………….. MANNED-UNMANNED TEAMING
NAM………………….. NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT
OAU………………….. ORGANISATION OF THE AFRICAN UNION
PESG………………….. PERSONAL ENVOY OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
POTUS………………….. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
POW………………….. PRISONERS OF WAR
SADR………………….. SAHRAWI ARAB DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
SMACO………………… SAHRAWI MINE ACTION COORDINATION OFFICE
SPS………………….. SAHARAN PRESS SERVICE
SRSG………….. SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
UAE………….. UNITED ARABS EMIRATES
UAV………….. UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES
UCAV……….. UNMANNED COMBAT AERIAL VEHICLES
UN ………….. UNITED NATIONS
UNCAT……….. UN COMMITTEE AGAINST TORTURE
UNDRR…….. UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
UNGS ………. UNITED NATIONS GEOGRAPHICAL SERVICES
UNHRC……….. UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSION FOR REFUGEE
UNICEF………… UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN'S EMERGENCY FUND
UNSC ……….. UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL
UNSG ……….. UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY GENERAL
US/USA…………….. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
USSR……….. UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
WGAD………….. WORKING GROUP ON ARBITRARY DETENTION
WSWA……….. WESTERN SAHARA WAR ARCHIVES
WSWR………….. WESTERN SAHARA RESOURCE WATCH