Escalation Risk in Protracted Missile Exchanges: Assessing Low-Probability, High-Impact Dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Based on IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13)

This policy brief assesses escalation risk in protracted missile exchanges through a probabilistic accumulation framework, using IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13) as a bounded analytical case.

Drawing on open-source reporting and scenario-based cost modeling (MCCM Day 1–Day 3), the study examines the interaction between launch volume, interception effectiveness, critical-node exposure, and political reaction multipliers. The analysis argues that escalation risk in sustained missile exchanges is driven less by average strike performance than by the cumulative probability of a single high-impact event.

The report introduces a simplified Escalation Risk Index (ERI) framework to model nonlinear escalation pathways and identifies threshold indicators that may signal rising systemic instability. Findings suggest that while the conflict remains operationally contained as of Wave 13, prolonged high-tempo exchanges may increase escalation risk over time.

This publication is intended for research and policy discussion purposes. All estimates are based on publicly available information and remain subject to verification constraints.