Statistical and Geospatial Insights into Rainfall Dynamics in Gujarat, India

Rainfall is a critical water resource, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions, where agricultural productivity and socio-economic development are closely tied to its availability. Assessing rainfall variability and long-term trends is essential for informed water resource management and climate adaptation strategies. This study examines spatio-temporal rainfall variability and trends across Gujarat, India, using 25 years (1999–2024) of IMD gridded data for June to October month. Statistical measures—mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation— and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test were applied within a GIS framework to assess patterns and visualize trends. Results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity: southern districts (Valsad, Navsari, Dang) receive significantly higher rainfall range between 1354mm to 2298mm, while Kutch and northern Gujarat remain drier with rainfall range between 400mm to 700mm and high variability (CV up to 65%). Trend analysis reveals increasing rainfall in northern and southern regions, contrasted by declining trends in Dang and Dahod (p value 0.034).