duncanobrien/multiple-threats: Halting predicted vertebrate declines requires tackling multiple drivers of biodiversity loss

Abstract Conservation policies aiming to halt biodiversity loss often focus on globally prevalent threats like habitat loss and exploitation, yet direct and interactive effects of multiple threats remain poorly quantified. Here, we go beyond prior meta-analyses or species-level studies by providing a global, population-level empirical analysis of threat interactions by examining 3,129 vertebrate population time series worldwide with documented exposure to single and multiple threats. Populations impacted solely by habitat loss or exploitation do not exhibit the steepest declines; instead, disease, invasive species, pollution, and climate change are associated with faster declines. Interactive threats contribute more to population declines than temporal or spatial variation. Counterfactual analyses reveal that mitigating multiple threats is essential to achieving non-negative vertebrate population trends and halting biodiversity loss.

Contents This repository contains scripts used to clean vertebrate trend data, fit Bayesian models and create figures. Raw Living Planet data is not provided due to its Data Use Policy, but links to publicly available data portals and maintainer contact details are provided. Some non-confidential data is provided with additional metadata removed following Living Planet Request. Rmarkdown files are also provided to replicate the workflow and supplementary materials.