Detecting Strategic Drift Before Outcome Failure: A Longitudinal Governance Diagnostic

Tagline: Identifying divergence while it is still reversible.

Paper Description: Strategic drift can be detected long before outcomes deteriorate. Using longitudinal analysis, this paper traces how divergence propagates through interpretive signals, governance artefacts, and allocation decisions within the Operating Spine. Rather than inferring misalignment from performance collapse, it demonstrates how Translation Drift becomes observable as it moves across decision interfaces. The study identifies early diagnostic signals that precede the stabilisation of new allocative rules.

Programme Description: The Coherence Programme examines how institutional decision systems maintain—or lose—fidelity to declared intent under conditions of complexity, scale, optimization pressure, and delayed feedback. The programme models governance as a translation architecture. Using the Operating Spine, it traces how purpose moves through Capabilities, Value Drivers, Strategy, Portfolio, and Signals, becoming progressively encoded into measurable criteria and allocative rules. At the interfaces between these layers, translation drift, coherence, and corrective intervention can be analyzed structurally. Across its papers, the programme establishes translation traceability as a foundational concern of modern governance. The research applies to public institutions, capital allocation systems, portfolio governance, and AI-mediated decision environments—where the durability of decision rules shapes institutional reliability over time.

Programme citation: When referencing the research programme as a whole, please cite the entry paper: Mertens, R. E. U. (2026). The Coherence Programme: A Conceptual Overview and Entry Point to the Research Programme. This paper serves as the conceptual overview and entry point to the programme.
Supporting materials and programme documentation are available via the Coherence Programme OSF repository. 
Programme website: https://thecoherenceprogramme.org

Version 1.0: First public release (Preprint).
Version 1.01: Terminology harmonisation and minor structural refinements to improve consistency across the Coherence Programme. No changes to the theoretical framework, constructs, or research design.