Once Set in Stone? Path Dependence in German Stem Cell Morality Policy

Abstract
Building on Engeli and Rothmayr Allison's (2013) finding that Germany represents a distinctively restrictive outlier in European embryonic stem cell regulation, this working paper investigates whether the same path-dependent logic that shaped the Stem Cell Act 2002 (Stammzellgesetz) can also explain the configuration of the Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis Act 2011 (PID-Gesetz). Drawing on a qualitative, deductive process-tracing analysis of Bundestag plenary protocols from 2002 and 2011, I test two hypotheses: first, that the 2011 PID debate reproduced the normative argumentative frames established in 2002 (H1); and second, that the same cross-party moral-policy coalitions that structured the 2002 debate re-emerged in 2011 (H2). Causal- process observations drawn from parliamentary debate transcripts provide substantial evidence for both hypotheses. The findings suggest that earlier normative decisions do not merely constitute historical context but operate as an active normative path that structures subsequent bioethical conflicts and limits the range of legitimate policy alternatives. The paper thereby confirms and extends the core results of Engeli and Rothmayr Allison for the most recent legislative episode in German bioethics.

Keywords: path dependence, morality policy, embryonic stem cell research, preimplantation genetic diagnosis, Germany, process tracing, Bundestag