Published February 11, 2026 | Version v1
Publication Open

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures

  • 1. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 2. Climate Analytics
  • 3. ROR icon Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • 4. ROR icon University College Cork
  • 5. ROR icon University of Melbourne
  • 6. ROR icon Asian Institute of Technology
  • 7. ROR icon Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • 8. ROR icon Imperial College London
  • 9. IIASA
  • 10. ROR icon CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
  • 11. ROR icon Politecnico di Milano

Description

In this work, we conduct a narrative review of pressing equity and justice issues within global modelled scenarios and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their consideration in future model developments and applications. We begin by introducing a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological issues that shape what integrated assessment models (IAMs) can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we develop a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives, ranging from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, this agenda prioritizes embedding equity principles directly into scenario design through differentiated effort sharing and finance flows, developing new frameworks that incorporate sufficiency and demand transformations while protecting decent living, and establishing genuine co-production with underrepresented communities beyond mere consultation. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with the implicit assumptions in scenario and model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, these can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal.

Files

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures _ PLOS Climate.pdf

Additional details

Funding

FWF Austrian Science Fund
REMASS: Resilience and Malleability of Social Metabolism EFP 5
European Commission
GENIE - GENIE: GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe 951542

Dates

Available
2026-02-11