Assessment of Electricity Access in Relation to Grid Proximity in Urban areas, Uganda

Uganda has made notable investments in electricity generation and grid expansion over the past decade; however, electricity access in urban and peri-urban areas remains uneven. A substantial share of the urban population lives close to existing electricity distribution infrastructure yet remains unconnected or inadequately served. This study assesses electricity access in relation to grid proximity in urban Uganda, focusing on the Central Metropolitan Area comprising Kampala, Mukono, and Wakiso.

Using the Energy Access Explorer (EAE), the study integrates Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to analyze spatial relationships between electricity distribution infrastructure, population density, relative wealth, night-time lights, and social infrastructure. Two scenarios were examined: affordability-constrained grid-adjacent communities and high-demand zones hosting critical social infrastructure such as health and education facilities.

The results demonstrate that grid proximity alone does not guarantee electricity access. In densely populated, low-income urban areas, affordability constraints significantly limit household connections despite physical grid availability. In high-demand zones, electricity access is constrained by network capacity and service reliability rather than infrastructure presence. These findings reveal persistent spatial and socio-economic mismatches between electrification investments and access outcomes in urban Uganda.

The study recommends a shift from infrastructure-led electrification toward connection-focused and service-quality-oriented interventions, including targeted subsidies, results-based financing, and prioritized distribution network reinforcement. Integrating geospatial decision-support tools such as the Energy Access Explorer into national electrification planning can support more equitable, data-driven urban energy access strategies.