Strategic Spatial Prioritisation of Mini-Grid Investments in Nigeria Using the Energy Access Explorer: Targeting Agricultural Value Chain Electrification

This study applies the Energy Access Explorer (EAE) to identify priority locations for mini-grid deployment that can stimulate productive use of energy and support rural economic growth in Nigeria, with a focus on agricultural value chain electrification. By integrating geospatial data on groundwater availability, renewable energy resource potential, agricultural activity clusters, and electricity access deficits, the study demonstrates that northern and middle-belt regions of Nigeria present strong opportunities for decentralised renewable electrification. Scenario-based spatial analysis shows that targeted electrification of irrigation systems, agro-processing facilities, and rural storage infrastructure can significantly enhance agricultural productivity, reduce post-harvest losses, and improve rural livelihoods. The analysis further identifies priority states, including Yobe, Kano, Kaduna, Niger, Kebbi, Sokoto, Plateau, Benue, and Adamawa as high-impact investment zones. 

The study recommends that Nigeria adopts spatially driven electrification planning frameworks to accelerate mini-grid deployment under the national Vision 30:30:30 energy target. Policymakers should prioritise integration of productive-use technologies within mini-grid programmes, strengthen inter-sectoral coordination between energy and agriculture ministries, and develop financing mechanisms that encourage private sector participation in rural electrification projects. Additionally, incorporating local demand assessments and techno-economic feasibility studies will enhance implementation effectiveness and sustainability.