THE TRIANGLE OF OPPOSITIONS IN PRACTICE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND VENEZUELA THROUGH A DUAL POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL READING (UNPUBLISHED MANUSCRIPT - © DANIELE BARNI - 5 FEBRUARY 2026)

This study employs the Triangle of Oppositions hermeneutic model to analyze the 3 January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela. Through the lens of Italian Political Realism and the model's procedural phases, two complementary readings are presented.

Reading A: The Internal Conquest
This reading dissects the internal power struggle. The Opposites are the residual old elite (O1) and a new U.S.-backed elite (O2), in conflict over control of the state (Enèrgheia). The active Witness (T) is the "Principle of Calculated Instability," a deliberate logic using managed disorder to dismantle old power structures. The outcome is diagnosed as the establishment of an oligarchic protectorate, not a democratic transition.

Reading B: The Geopolitical Imperative
This reading frames the intervention as a hegemonic act. The Opposites are Venezuela (O1) and the United States (O2), contending for hegemonic prestige (Enèrgheia). The Witness (T) is the "Law of Prestige," a psycho-political force that transforms the event into a symbolic battleground for reasserting dominance. The intervention is thus a therapeutic show of force to repair a perceived image of decline.

The model demonstrates how the internal engineering of power (A) and the external prestige-driven imperative (B) are inseparable dimensions of the same coercive event.